What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About the Ethereum Hard Fork

Ether prices rose in digital-asset markets on Thursday after the Ethereum blockchain’s “London hard fork” went live, and cryptocurrency analysts are now weighing in on the impact of the network upgrade.

At press time, ether was trading at $2,802. The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is up more than $300 from its daily lows, with a 4.83% gain over the past 24 hours.

Martin Gaspar, research analyst at CrossTower:

• The apparent success of the upgrade is getting priced in.
• "The notion of ethereum becoming a deflationary cryptocurrency in the future is now tangible, and the effects on ethereum’s valuation could be profound."

Alex Svanevik, co-founder & CEO at Nansen:

• It will take a while, possibly even weeks, to see any real impact from the upgrade.
• Currently, he is focusing on a metric that looks at the percentage of EIP 1559 transactions, which is currently very low.
• "As wallets, bots, etc. start making use of the EIP 1559 features, we will know more about how this upgrade affects Ethereum long term."

Denis Vinokourov, head of research at Synergia Capital:

• "Overall, the reaction is more or less as expected. It is very rarely that ethereum benefits from any immediate upside following such network upgrades, although a bias tends to materialize over time."
• These occasions are typically well documented heading into the event, given the transparent discussions on various forums and conferences, he said.
• That's "unlike, for example, the [Federal Reserve] meeting, where slight nuances with regards to language used may have a more pronounced impact on reaction by different asset classes," Vinokourov said.

Laurent Kssis, managing director of exchange-traded products at 21Shares AG:

• Kssis sees a possibility of a short-term correction as the network stabilizes, before resuming an upward trend.
• He said he can't see a definite trend in the short term, but a relative value trade could be implemented between ether and bitcoin.
•  "With [non-fungible tokens] in full swing, we see a consolidation as demand remains strong in the [decentralized finance] segment."

Alexandre Lores, analyst at Quantum Economics:

• Increased scarcity of ether will bring longer-term value to supply/demand factors. 
• “Short term, this is another reason to be bullish," Lores said.
• Lores also said that bitcoin is looking bullish on the 15-minute and one-hour candle charts.
• “I believe this is anther supporting factor in the ETH rally; however, in this case it does not appear to be the dominant factor,” he said.
• Normally, bitcoin is the main influencing factor, but in this instance it is merely adding fuel to the “bullish fire," according to Lores.

Tom Salter, digital asset analyst at ByteTree:

• “This is the most extensive upgrade to Ethereum in years. Part of me thinks Ethereum maximalists did not expect it to be implemented. Clearly, hype has a part to play.”
• “Bear in mind this rise has taken [ETH] to a 30-day relative high against BTC. That alone will give this breakaway legs.”
• In terms of what is next, Salter hopes that several debates will be settled in the Ethereum community: whether EIP 1559 will give Ethereum a deflationary supply, and whether fee tips will be enough for "greedy miners."

Rick Bensignor, president of Bensignor Investment Strategies:

• Bensignor attributes ether's rise in price after the London upgrade to a combination of the theoretical bullishness that comes from the "hard fork" (i.e., lower transaction costs along with slightly reduced supply).
• He also said the uptick is because crypto traders tend to trade the news of the day, and "it's not a developed enough market to really know what the long-term fundamentals truly are,” said Bensignor.