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- Bitcoin has risen by $1,000 since Friday’s announcement by Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23. The price rise has neutralized the bearish setup on the intraday charts seen last week.
- The gains could be extended further to $11,000, as the hourly chart is reporting a bullish continuation pattern.
- The weekly chart continues to call a deeper pullback to $9,000 with key moving averages (MAs) producing a first bearish crossover since February.
- A weekly close above $12,000 is needed for a complete bullish revival.
Bitcoin (BTC) has gained $1,000 since the Bakkt exchange announced it has the green light to offer bitcoin futures, but key resistance still lies ahead.
The top cryptocurrency picked up a bid around $9,700 in the U.S. trading hours on Friday and printed highs above $10,750 earlier today, according to Bitstamp data.
Notably, the move above $10,000 happened on Friday after CoinDesk reported that the Intercontinental Exchange’s young subsidiary Bakkt has received regulatory approval to launch its much-anticipated platform for daily and monthly BTC futures.
Bitcoin futures to be launched by Bakkt will be physically settled, as opposed to the cash-settled futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Put simply, BTC futures trading on Bakkt will not rely upon unregulated spot markets for settlement prices and the party will receive delivery of bitcoins from the Bakkt Digital Asset Warehouse at the end of the contract period.
Many observers, including cryptocurrency analyst and trader Scott Melker, are of the opinion that Bakkt’s physically-delivered futures product will open the floodgates for the institutional money and is a long-term bullish development for bitcoin.
Physically delivered futures require the actual purchase of bitcoins, which, according to Melker is a “huge” development. Also, there is general consensus that the price discovery in new physical delivery markets will contribute to building confidence in BTC prices.
That said, some observers are warning that an increased institutional volume my not necessarily translate into stronger buying pressure.
“Volume is volume, don’t express your bias toward it”, popular Cryptocurrency market analyst @CryptoNekoZ tweeted earlier today.
Meanwhile, financial analyst and tech journalist Joseph Young tweeted over the weekend that, “Bakkt launch was priced into the market”.
So far, the markets have reacted positively to Bakkt news if the $1,000 price rise is anything to go by.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $10,700 on Bitstamp and could rise further to $11,000. The gains, however, could be short-lived as the odds are stacked against the bulls, according to technical charts.
Hourly chart
BTC witnessed a high-volume ascending triangle breakout earlier today. The bullish continuation pattern indicates a resumption of the rally from the last week’s low of $9,467 and has created room for a rise to $11,000.
So far, however, the upside has been capped around $10,750.
Weekly chart
BTC fell 10.49 percent last week, strengthening the case for a deeper pullback put forward by the preceding week’s rejection above $12,000.
The 14-week relative strength index has created a bearish lower high. Further, the 5-week moving average (MA) has crossed below the 10-week MA for the first time since February.
Currently, the 5-week MA is seen at $10,610 and the 10-week MA is located at $10,691. The bearish crossover indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The moving average convergence divergence histogram continues to produce lower highs above the zero line, a sign of weakening bullish momentum.
All-in-all, the case for a fall back to $9,000 remains intact. The outlook would turn bullish only if prices print a weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View