Some 62% of bitcoin enthusiasts believe the digital currency’s price will be less than $500 at the end of this year, according to the results of a CoinDesk poll.
The survey results show 1,682 of the 2,702 respondents predicted the price of bitcoin would end the year between $0 and $499.
The price predicted by the greatest number of respondents was $400, with 281 (10.4%) of people guessing this value. This was followed by $500 and $350, with 277 and 232 votes, respectively.
The most popular predictions can be seen in the table below:
| Price | Number of predictions | Percentage of total |
|---|---|---|
| $300 | 148 | 5.5% |
| $350 | 232 | 8.6% |
| $400 | 281 | 10.4% |
| $450 | 153 | 5.7% |
| $500 | 277 | 10.3% |
Of the respondents, 47 thought the price would fall to between $0 and $100 at the end of the year.
A total of 309 people predicted the price would drop below bitcoin’s current value (at press time) of $279 at the end of the year. However, 2,393 felt the price would be higher than $279 on 31st December.
Some 262 of the report’s respondents said they thought the price would be over $1,000 by the end of the year, with only 43 respondents predicting the price would reach more than $11,000.
These findings come in stark contrast to the results of last year’s survey, which showed 56% of CoinDesk readers believed the price would reach $10,000 in 2014.
Price volatility
Bitcoin’s volatility does not come as a surprise to bitcoin enthusiasts, who watched it spike beyond $1,000 in late 2013, drop in price throughout the following year and saw a further 40% decrease this January.
Despite its notorious instability, CoinDesk’s latest State of Bitcoin report shows the cryptocurrency’s price stabilised somewhat in the last quarter.
Price rationale
One survey respondent, who predicted a valuation of $180 by the end of 2015, claimed bitcoin’s current value was unrealistic.
“I think the price is still overvalued based on available and foreseeable use cases and the corresponding user base. In the next year, I think some of the pump and dump culprits will run out of money and a real correction will bring a further dip in the price below $120 with a slow resurgence from that point as the global user base grows organically,” they said.
Economic instability, said another commentator, would help drive the digital currency’s price as people looked to bitcoin for an alternative.
They explained: “Contiuing global financial crisis will highlight advantages to the public, while innovation will make bitcoin easier to become involved.”
The responses to the poll proved that, generally speaking, bitcoin’s followers were largely aware of the consequences that macro-economic changes could have on the digital currency’s price.
Influence of the Greek crisis
Given the media’s ongoing association between the digital currency’s value and economic instability in Greece, it is hardly surprising that some aficionados also made the connection.
Some 22.57% of the survey respondents said their outlook on the digital currency’s price had been influenced by Greece’s economic crisis, which has seen citizens subjected to strict capital controls since 29th June.
When questioned, 39.87% of respondents admitted their opinion on bitcoin’s price had been slightly influenced by the Greek crisis. However, 23.64% of those surveyed did not correlate the digital currency’s recent price movements with events in the Southern European country.
Timing of purchases
When asked about when they made their last bitcoin purchase, 31.5% of those surveyed said they had bought bitcoin within the past week.
While 11.7% noted their last purchase had taken place two weeks ago, 9.3% said they had bought bitcoin last month. A further 21.7% said they last bought bitcoin more than six months ago.
View our CoinDesk Price Survey 2015 infographic for the key results at a glance.
Featured image via Shutterstock.