Bitcoin jumped above $9,500 on Wednesday, ending a four-week-long low-volatility squeeze.
Now, the cryptocurrency looks set to climb toward the psychological hurdle of $10,000, as suggested by several factors.
1. Volatility returns
- Bitcoin's high of $9,551 on Wednesday was its highest level since June 24, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index.
- The gain has confirmed a Bollinger band breakout on the daily chart and opened the doors for a move of $400 or more on the higher side, as noted by Adrian Zdunczyk, CEO of trading community The BIRB Nest in a blog post.
- Bollinger bands are volatility indicators placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average.
- They had recently narrowed to levels last seen in November 2018 as the cryptocurrency traded in the very restricted range of $9,000–$9,400.
- A big move often follows a period of very low volatility.
2. Institutional interest rising
- Open interest or open positions in bitcoin futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) – considered synonymous with institutional interest – jumped 15% to a one-month high of $452 million on Wednesday.
- The metric has risen by 24% over the past three days alongside bitcoin’s uptick from $9,120 to $9,550, according to data source Skew.
- Global open interest (as gauged by data from 12 major crypto derivatives exchanges) has risen above $4 billion for the first time since early March.
- A price rally is said to have legs if it is accompanied by an uptick in open interest.
3. 'Risk-on' markets
- The “risk-on” mood in the traditional markets further supports stronger gains for the leading cryptocurrency.
- Global stock markets are trading at five-month highs while the U.S. dollar, a safe haven in times of crisis, is languishing near March lows, according to Investing.com.
- The European Union’s fiscal stimulus deal and market expectations of an additional U.S. coronavirus stimulus package are pushing stocks higher.
- Bitcoin has recently developed a stronger positive correlation with the equity markets.
- It's worth noting that escalating China-U.S. tensions pose a risk to the equity market rally and possibly bitcoin prices.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing.